How to increase the odds that a decision will succeed

Bob Sutton recaps former Intel CEO and chairman Andy Grove's approach to keeping a positive attitude when decisions must be made with incomplete information:

Well, part of it is self-discipline and part of it is deception. And the deception becomes reality--deception in the sense that you pump yourself up and put a better face on things than you start off feeling. After a while, if you act confident, you become more confident. So the deception becomes less of a deception. But I think it is very important for you to do two things: act on your temporary conviction as if it was a real conviction; and when you realize that you are wrong, correct course very quickly.

Bob explains: "There is strong evidence that one of the main ways to increase the odds that a decision will succeed is to express and feel confidence in it, even if you are not quite sure, because--as hundreds of studies of the self-fulfilling prophecy show, believing that something will succeed is one of the best ways to increase the chances it will succeed."